Loading Publication...
close
Sep 2019

Large-Scale Forest Restoration Stabilizes Carbon Under Climate Change in the Southwest U.S.

Lisa A McCauley, Marcos D Robles, Travis Woolley, Robert M Marshall, Alec Kretchun, and David F Gori
Arizona
Climate Change, Fire, Forest Restoration Benefits
Forest
USFS
Abstract

A century of fire suppression along with a warmer climate have increased the size, frequency and severity of wildfires, which has increased risk to communities, water supplies, wildlife, forest cover and carbon stocks. The Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI), a collaboration between the U.S. Forest Service and stakeholders to accelerate forest thinning, was formed in response to the large fires. We examined the fate of forest carbon with different rates of forest thinning across 1 million acres of 4FRI in northern AZ by simulating carbon sequestration and emissions between 2010 and 2100 under four climate change scenarios and different rates of mechanical thinning followed by prescribed fire. We examined how forest thinning and prescribed fire will affect wildfire severity and forest growth under a changing climate. We found that accelerated forest thinning followed by prescribed fire resulted in a 9-16% increase in carbon, stabilizing forest carbon stocks for decades and buying considerable time to better understand the effects of climate change on forests. In the accelerated forest thinning scenarios, 70% of the gains in carbon were due to a decrease in wildfire severity and 30% were due to an increase in forest productivity. Fire-adapted forests comprise more than 40% of the total forest cover in the western U.S., the majority of those forests are at risk of catastrophic fire. This study suggests that accelerated forest thinning can sustain forest cover and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by reducing catastrophic wildfire.

Links
McCauley et al 2019
PDF, 806.5 kB
 
(ALL RIGHTS GRANTED TNC) View of Escudilla Mountain. Fall colors heighten the natural beauty of forest and meadow in the White Mountains, one of Arizona’s last wide-open spaces and where TNC works to protect the headwaters of three major Arizona rivers: the Salt, Gila, and Little Colorado and their greenbelts – riparian habitats critical for wildlife and water quality – as well as restore healthy forests within the largest ponderosa pine community in the world, save rare and unique wildlife and plant species, and control non-native, invasive species, such as crayfish, Arizona. © Betsy D. Warner/TNC
Aerial view of the Parks West restoration site overseen by TNC. Taken March 16, 2020.
Conservancy staffers, Dale Turner and Amanda Rebore, helping to map the Sabn Pedro River in Arizona. They use a GPS unit to denote the end of the water flow on the LowerSan Pedro River. They hiked through the Conservancy’s San Pedro Preserve.

Our Approach to Science

The Nature Conservancy’s conservation science program in Arizona engages stakeholders and expertise in applied science and policy to develop new information, ideas, and tools that can help solve some of our most pressing challenges affecting people and nature

Explore Our Science

Future Forests

We are working with partners and stakeholders to accelerate the pace and scale of forest restoration for a healthy Arizona

Mapping the Status of River Streams

Wet/dry mapping provides a low-cost, river-wide snapshot of hydrologic conditions for rivers with interrupted perennial surface flows.

Our Science in Action

Future Forests
Forests
Future Forests
Accelerating the pace and scale of forest restoration for a healthy Arizona.
Wet/Dry Mapping
Rivers & Water
Wet/Dry Mapping
Snapshot of hydrologic conditions for rivers with interrupted perennial surface flows.
Arizona Rivers & Water
Rivers & Water
Arizona Rivers & Water
Achieving sustainable water management.
Las Ciénegas Adaptive Management
Deserts & Grasslands
Las Ciénegas Adaptive Management
Collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management at Las Ciénegas National Conservation Area.
Ecoregion Assessments
Conservation
Ecoregion Assessments
Conservation of biodiversity across western North America.
Southwest Forest Assessment Project
Forests
Southwest Forest Assessment Project
Restoring ecosystems throughout Arizona and New Mexico’s National Forest.
Southwest Grasslands
Deserts & Grasslands
Southwest Grasslands
Assessing the state of Arizona’s grasslands.
Natural Infrastructure
Conservation
Natural Infrastructure
Developing a natural infrastructure dataset by integrating studies on wildlife habitat and open space.

Explore Our Science

Dec 2024
Maps
BLM, NGO
Freshwater Assessment
Riparian-aquatic
San Pedro River
Dale Turner, Brooke Bushman, Lisa McCauley, Patrick Hellmann
San Pedro River Wet/Dry Map Animation
Every June groups of volunteers walk the entire 170 mile length of the San Pedro River and record where it is wet and where it is dry during the hottest, driest time of the year. Twenty years’ worth of data on summertime surface flows in the San Pedro River within the San Pedro Riparian National C[…]
Dec 2024
Maps
BLM, NGO
Freshwater Assessment
Riparian-aquatic
San Pedro River
Turner, D., L. McCauley, P. Hellmann
San Pedro River Wet-Dry Maps
The San Pedro River wet/dry mapping dataset is a community effort to track the river’s health by monitoring the persistence of surface water during the driest time of each year. It is created by recording the end points of every wet section of the San Pedro River during June each year. Maps depict[…]
Sep 2023
Papers
Arizona, Geo Region
Collaboration
Ecosystem, Forest
Forest Restoration Benefits, Topic
Jamie L Peeler, Lisa McCauley, Kerry L Metlen, Travis Woolley, Kimberley T Davis, Marcos D Robles, Ryan D Haugo, Karin L Riley, Philip E Higuera, Joseph E Fargione
Identifying opportunity hot spots for reducing the risk of wildfire-caused carbon loss in western US conifer forests
As both the climate and wildfire crises intensify and investments are made to dramatically increase the pace of forest restoration across dry forests in the western U.S. through the Wildfire Crisis Strategy, an understanding of where Nature-Based Solutions are the most optimal in lessening climate i[…]